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海螺水泥：投资价值分析报告 |
| 2008-05-15 05:41 |
天相投资顾问有限公司 | 股本性质 | 数量(万股) | | 总股本 | 156643.42 | | 流通股 | 75876.80 | | 流通A股 | 32556.80 | | 流通H股 | 43320 | | 限售A股 | 80766.62 | | 国有法人持股 | 51966.72 | | 其他内资持股合计 | 28799.90 | | 其中：境内法人持股 | 28799.90 |
| 类别 | 财务指标 | 2005年 | 2006年 | 2007年 | 2007年行业均值 | | 营运能力 | 应收账款周转率(次) | 86.25 | 53.66 | 60.36 | 16.14 | | 存货周转率(次) | 9.09 | 10.29 | 9.12 | 5.60 | | 总资产周转率(次) | 0.61 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.55 | | 盈利能力 | 主营业务利润率 | 23.20% | 29.52% | 31.5% | 9.34% | | 营业费用率 | 7.69% | 7.53% | 6.49% | 6.62% | | 管理费用率 | 3.28% | 3.27% | 3.84% | 5.55% | | 财务费用率 | 4.11% | 3.47% | 3.23% | 4.30% | | 期间费用率 | 15.08% | 14.28% | 13.57% | 16.47% | | 偿债能力 | 流动比率 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.73 | | 速动比率 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.55 | | 资产负债率(%) | 64.38 | 61.42 | 62.8 | 58.64 |
| | 2006A | 2007A | 2008E | 2009E | | 水泥熟料综合销量(万吨) | 7,551 | 8,484 | 10,317 | 12,275 | | 水泥熟料综合价格(元/吨) | 202 | 213 | 228 | 239 | | 营业费用率% | 7.53% | 6.49% | 6.30% | 6.30% | | 管理费用率% | 3.27% | 3.84% | 3.70% | 3.70% | | 财务费用率 | 3.47% | 3.23% | 2.08% | 1.82% | | 少数股东权益 | 2.47% | 1.12% | 1.10% | 1.00% |
| | 2006A | 2007A | 2008E | 2009E | | 一、营业收入 | 1,609,606 | 1,877,610 | 2,329,533 | 2,937,850 | | 增长率 | 40.83% | 16.65% | 24.07% | 26.11% | | 减：营业成本 | 1,150,942 | 1,292,571 | 1,551,213 | 1,889,332 | | 毛利 | 458,663 | 585,039 | 778,320 | 1,048,518 | | 增长率(%) | 82.58% | 27.55% | 33.04% | 34.72% | | 综合毛利率(%) | 28.50% | 31.16% | 33.41% | 35.69% | | 营业税金及附加 | 10,506 | 13,408 | 13977 | 17,627 | | 销售费用 | 109,077 | 121,923 | 146,761 | 185,085 | | 管理费用 | 51,830 | 72,076 | 86,193 | 108,700 | | 财务费用 | 52,337 | 60,713 | 48,570 | 53,427 | | 期间费用率(%) | 13.25% | 13.57% | 12.08% | 11.82% | | 资产减值损失 | 419 | 286 | 0 | 0 | | 投资收益 | 848 | 424 | 699 | 881 | | 二、营业利润 | 230,368 | 317,058 | 483,518 | 684,560 | | 增长率(%) | 184.43% | 37.63% | 52.50% | 41.58% | | 加：营业外收入 | 28,997 | 32,398 | 41,932 | 52,881 | | 减：营业外支出 | 738 | 957 | 0 | 0 | | 三、利润总额 | 258,628 | 348,499 | 525,450 | 737,442 | | 增长率(%) | 200.25% | 34.75% | 50.78% | 40.34% | | 减：所得税费用 | 68,686 | 78,098 | 106,125 | 148,850 | | 四、净利润 | 189,942 | 270,401 | 419,325 | 588,592 | | 归属于母公司所有者的净利润 | 151,874 | 249,422 | 393,700 | 559,213 | | 增长率(%) | 273.25% | 74.67% | 57.66% | 42.04% | | 少数股东损益 | 38,068 | 20,979 | 25,625 | 29,379 | | 每股收益 | 1.14 | 1.70 | 2.23 | 3.17 |
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| (来源：上海证券报) |
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